DOES RUSSIA COUNT ANYMORE?
February 24, 2004
By Toby Westerman
Copyright 2004 International News Analysis Today
www.inatoday.com
There is no doubt that the Russian nation is in crisis, perhaps even in fatal crisis.
Russia's population is in steep decline with deaths exceeding births; the life expectancy for Russian males has fallen to about 58 years; proper medical care is non-existent for much of the population. Drug and alcohol abuse are rampant.
Much of the growth in the Russian economy is based on the export of natural resources, especially oil and gas, accounting for 25 percent of output, instead of the officially declared nine percent.
Taken together, Russian social and economic statistics begin to resemble that of a third world nation, rather than that of a world power.
The Russian military appears to be in a similarly poor position. Recent missile tests, designed to impress the world with Russian missile capabilities, resulted in utter failure. Russian performance against Chechen rebels has been less than impressive. Old equipment, lack of parts, and poor funding plague what was one of the most feared military machines in history.
Even Pravda, with close ties to the Russian Communist Party, claimed recently that the Russian military "makes fun" of Putin by concealing from him "the truth about the sad state" of the Russian armed forces.
In many respects Russia seems to be a spent force, a mere shadow of the mighty Soviet Union, a has-been on the world stage.
While this conclusion is tempting, it may also be terribly wrong.
The Russian people have a great capacity to endure great hardship and misery - both from enemies and their own leaders.
Although crippled in many respects, Russia remains an international lynchpin, dominating the resource-rich, strategically important Central Asian nations. Moscow is responsible for the technology, training, and hardware behind China's stunning military modernization.
As a result of Russian aid, China's armed forces threaten to challenge the U.S. in the Pacific. The Chinese military, with essential Russian assistance, is also becoming a major player in the renewed race for outer space.
Russia has an important voice in the world price of oil, both due to its own production, and its collaboration with OPEC, especially with OPEC founder Saudi Arabia.
As social decay becomes more pronounced, the Russian military is ready to bring order. Russia has revived military training for its youth, and operates an elite military organization for particularly promising teen boys.
Many young men in Russia are battle hardened veterans of a long, vicious war in Chechnya. The military emblems under which these men fought - and Russian youth are now trained - are those of the former Soviet Union.
Press reports have quoted Russian President Vladimir Putin as lamenting the collapse of the USSR, but the end of the Soviet Union was unavoidable, said the Russian President.
Putin is correct, the fall of the USSR was necessary - but whether the collapse was a sudden, unexpected occurrence, or part of a planned restructuring of the Communist world remains to be seen.
What is certain is that in the present crisis, Russia is looking back to its military and Communist past. The Russian people are looking for strength and security - and the Russian military is willing to meet those needs.
The Russian bear is wounded, but few animals are more dangerous than a wounded bear.
The American eagle must itself remain strong and vigilant.
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